Scenarios

Introduction

The BusinessNZ Energy Council, businesses, academia and government have prepared two potential scenarios of New Zealand’s energy future to 2060.

The purpose of this robust explorative analysis is to help New Zealand think about how the future energy mix might look, and the range of trade-offs and choices it might need to make along the way. These narratives will help government leaders, businesses and individuals manage uncertainties and make resilient decisions in a world where multiple futures can play out.

New Zealand, like the rest of the world, faces rapidly changing patterns of energy use, emerging disruptive technologies and the challenge of living sustainably. The modelling of the two scenarios has provided plausible, integrated, energy sector futures developed by a broad cross-section of New Zealanders from both within and outside the energy sector.

Ongoing Modelling

The purpose of this robust explorative analysis is to help New Zealand think about how the future energy mix might look, and the range of trade-offs and choices it might need to make along the way. These narratives will help government leaders, businesses and individuals manage uncertainties and make resilient decisions in a world where multiple futures can play out.

New Zealand, like the rest of the world, faces rapidly changing patterns of energy use, emerging disruptive technologies and the challenge of living sustainably. The modelling of the two scenarios has provided plausible, integrated, energy sector futures developed by a broad cross-section of New Zealanders from both within and outside the energy sector.

The Scenarios

In Kea, society prioritises reducing GHG emissions in the economy. There is sense of common purpose and this gives the impetus for the economic transformation needed to achieve it.

Individuals, communities and businesses behave differently, investing heavily in energy efficiency and alternative fuels in an effort for all parts of the community to make a contribution to reducing CO2 emissions in the energy sector.

In Tūī, New Zealand society does not generally share a common view that making a contribution to reduce global warming by reducing GHG emissions is the most important issue of the day.

New Zealand balances energy security and the cost of contributing to reducing global warming and a number of other important issues against the effort required to make a meaningful contribution to climate change.